Market Watch / Set Guides & News / Jul 20, 2026 / 5 min
Pitch Black first-weekend price reset: six cards that moved
The first weekend did not settle Pitch Black prices. It did show how quickly launch references can reset once more cards reach the market.
Release weekend creates a strange moment in a new set. The cards finally exist in enough hands to produce real price references, but supply is still arriving and yesterday's number can already look absurd. Mega Evolution—Pitch Black demonstrated that clearly: all six cards in our first-weekend sample fell between the morning of July 18 and the morning of July 20, 2026.
That does not mean every Pitch Black card will keep falling. It means the first visible reference was a poor reason to rush. The useful question is not “which card lost the most?” but “which buying decisions now have enough evidence to wait?”
The six-card result
| Card | July 18 TCGplayer reference | July 20 TCGplayer reference | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Excadrill ex 065/084 | $4.06 | $0.84 | −79.3% |
| Mega Zeraora ex 114/084 | $160.67 | $64.02 | −60.2% |
| Mega Chandelure ex 115/084 | $110.00 | $55.26 | −49.8% |
| Morpeko ex 117/084 | $160.91 | $89.87 | −44.1% |
| Mega Darkrai ex 120/084 | $365.33 | $232.57 | −36.3% |
| Mega Darkrai ex 116/084 | $394.21 | $301.98 | −23.4% |
Market watch
Pitch Black after the first weekend: wait before treating the opening price as normal
See which cards are worth watching, where to compare them, and what to check before you buy.
Some marketplace links may earn us a commission at no extra cost to you.
Chase cards to watch
Exact high-rarity printings worth saving and comparing after release.
Watch
Mega Darkrai ex
The TCGplayer reference for Mega Darkrai ex 116/084 moved from $301.98 on July 20 to $306.74 on July 25, a 1.6% increase after its first-weekend decline.
Keep 116/084 on the wishlist and compare sold evidence before treating a small rebound as a settled price.
Unbinder daily TCGplayer reference snapshots · Reviewed 2026-07-25
Watch
Mega Zeraora ex
The TCGplayer reference for Mega Zeraora ex 114/084 moved from $64.02 on July 20 to $72.55 on July 25, a 13.3% increase after its first-weekend decline.
Compare the same card number and condition again before buying; one rebound does not establish a floor.
Unbinder daily TCGplayer reference snapshots · Reviewed 2026-07-25
Watch
Morpeko ex
The TCGplayer reference for Morpeko ex 117/084 moved from $89.87 on July 20 to $136.79 on July 25, a 52.2% increase.
Keep 117/084 on the wishlist while the daily reference is still moving sharply and check comparable sales before buying.
Unbinder daily TCGplayer reference snapshots · Reviewed 2026-07-25
Cards to wait on
Prices may still be driven by hype or too few sales.
Wait
Mega Chandelure ex
The TCGplayer reference for Mega Chandelure ex 115/084 moved from $55.26 on July 20 to $54.96 on July 25, a 0.5% decline.
Treat the flatter five-day reference as a reason to compare, not proof that 115/084 has reached a final price.
Unbinder daily TCGplayer reference snapshots · Reviewed 2026-07-25
Wait
Mega Darkrai ex
The TCGplayer reference for Mega Darkrai ex 120/084 moved from $232.57 on July 20 to $196.67 on July 25, a further 15.4% decline.
Keep 120/084 separate from the Darkrai SIR and wait while its reference continues to move materially.
Unbinder daily TCGplayer reference snapshots · Reviewed 2026-07-25
Singles worth checking
Cards that may make more sense as singles than more packs.
Consider the single
Mega Excadrill ex
The TCGplayer reference for Mega Excadrill ex 065/084 moved from $0.84 on July 20 to $1.54 on July 25; the 83.3% increase equals $0.70.
Buy 065/084 when it fills a binder gap; do not rank a seventy-cent move beside high-rarity chases by percentage alone.
Unbinder daily TCGplayer reference snapshots · Reviewed 2026-07-25
Sources checked 2026-07-20.
The two Darkrai cards held up better than the rest of this small group, but “held up” is relative. A 23.4% or 36.3% change in roughly 48 hours is still volatile. Mega Darkrai ex 116/084 also remained the most expensive card in the sample; this comparison says nothing about whether $301.98 is a fair long-term price.
Sources and method
This analysis uses Unbinder's persisted PokeTrace observations of TCGplayer Near Mint market-price references for six identified English Pitch Black cards. We compared the observations captured on July 18, 2026 at 06:03 UTC with those captured on July 20, 2026 at 06:21 UTC. The percentage is `(July 20 − July 18) / July 18`, rounded to one decimal place.
The sample contains six cards and two comparable observations per card. It is not a pull-rate study, a transaction log or a claim about the entire market. TCGplayer Market Price is a marketplace-derived reference; it is not the price of every available copy. Read TCGplayer's explanation of its price points before using the figures for an expensive purchase.
Cardmarket evidence was not complete enough across the same six printings and timestamps, so we did not blend EUR asking prices into this table. We also excluded graded cards, other languages, shipping, taxes and individual eBay sales. The set's physical release date was July 17, 2026; the official TCG Live release notice confirms digital availability on July 16.
Mega Excadrill shows why percentages need context
Mega Excadrill ex 065/084 had the largest percentage fall, from $4.06 to $0.84. That sounds dramatic, but the absolute difference was $3.22. It is a Double Rare and a completion card, not a direct substitute for a Special Illustration Rare chase.
For a collector who needs 065/084, the lower reference may make a single more sensible than another pack. For someone comparing headline chase demand, Excadrill should not be ranked above Darkrai merely because its percentage moved further.
Zeraora and Chandelure reset fastest among the SIRs
Mega Zeraora ex 114/084 moved from $160.67 to $64.02, while Mega Chandelure ex 115/084 moved from $110.00 to $55.26. Both changes are large enough to make an opening-weekend purchase look premature.
The calmer move is to verify the card version, decide whether the artwork belongs in your binder and check again after several more days of supply. If the card is still a favorite at a lower price, the wait has improved the decision without changing the collecting goal.
Darkrai still leads, but the range is moving
Mega Darkrai ex 116/084 finished the period at $301.98 and the Mega Hyper Rare 120/084 at $232.57. The SIR therefore remained ahead in this sample even though the MHR has the rarer-sounding treatment.
This is a useful reminder that rarity labels do not rank cards by themselves. Artwork, Pokemon popularity, supply and buyer attention can matter more. Use the Pitch Black chase-card guide to compare the printings, then use the price-watch guide for the checks to make before buying.
What a collector can do now
- Wait on high-priced chase cards while daily references still move by double digits.
- Buy an inexpensive completion card only when it fills a real binder gap.
- Keep 116/084 and 120/084 separate; they are different Darkrai printings.
- Compare Cardmarket and recent sold listings before turning a USD reference into a European buying decision.
- Save the source and date with any number you use. A number without a date is especially weak during release week.
If you already record your cards in Unbinder, add only the version you actually own and keep a wanted chase card on the wishlist until it arrives. That small separation prevents a falling reference from turning into a duplicate purchase.
What we will check next
The next review is scheduled for July 24, 2026. We will look for a longer TCGplayer series, usable Cardmarket context and whether the gap between the two Darkrai printings narrows or widens. Until then, the first weekend supports one conclusion: Pitch Black price discovery is still in progress.
Continue this workflow
Pokemon 30th Celebration products, pack counts and dates →